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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC DEVELOPMENT AND RESEARCH International Peer Reviewed & Refereed Journals, Open Access Journal ISSN Approved Journal No: 2455-2631 | Impact factor: 8.15 | ESTD Year: 2016 open access , Peer-reviewed, and Refereed Journals, Impact factor 8.15 |
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| Paper Title: | Forecasting Cyber Hacking Breaches using Time Series Analysis |
| Authors Name: | G.S.C.Sirisha , V. Sai Karthika , M. Radhika Mani |
| Unique Id: | IJSDR2005031 |
| Published In: | Volume 5 Issue 5, May-2020 |
| Abstract: | Analyzing cyber incident data sets is an important method for deepening our understanding of the evolution of the present threat situation. This is a relatively new research topic, and many studies remain to be done. In this paper, we report a statistical analysis of a breach incident data set corresponding to 15 years (2005–2019) of cyber hacking activities that include malware attacks. We show that, in contrast to the findings reported in the literature, both hacking breach incident inter-arrival times and breach sizes should be modelled by stochastic processes, rather than by distributions because they exhibit autocorrelations. Then, we propose particular stochastic process models to, respectively, fit the inter-arrival times and the breach sizes (total number of records breached). We show that these models successfully predict the breach sizes. In order to get deeper insights into the evolution of hacking breach incidents, we conduct both qualitative and quantitative trend analyses on the data set. We draw a set of cyber security insights, including that the threat of cyber hacks is indeed getting worse in terms of their frequency, but not in terms of the magnitude of their damage. |
| Keywords: | Breach, Time Series, ARIMA, forecast, Seasonality, Trend |
| Cite Article: | "Forecasting Cyber Hacking Breaches using Time Series Analysis", International Journal of Science & Engineering Development Research (www.ijsdr.org), ISSN:2455-2631, Vol.5, Issue 5, page no.180 - 188, May-2020, Available :http://www.ijsdr.org/papers/IJSDR2005031.pdf |
| Downloads: | 000337064 |
| Publication Details: | Published Paper ID: IJSDR2005031 Registration ID:191730 Published In: Volume 5 Issue 5, May-2020 DOI (Digital Object Identifier): Page No: 180 - 188 Publisher: IJSDR | www.ijsdr.org ISSN Number: 2455-2631 |
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