Exploring the Extent of the Predictive Power of a Monte Carlo Simulation in Forecasting 7-Day Ahead Closing Stock Prices for Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR)

Arush Dikay

Monte Carlo Simulation, Finance, Financial Mathematics

This paper applies a Monte Carlo simulation to model short-term movements in Palantir Technologies’ stock price. Using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) framework, 50,000 simulated price paths were generated over a 7-day horizon beginning at an initial value of $177. The simulation produced an average Day 7 price of $182.21 with a standard deviation of 18.74. The distribution of outcomes was wide, ranging from a minimum of $103 to a maximum of $283, with a slight positive skew (0.41) and excess kurtosis (2.9). These results confirm that the Monte Carlo approach captures both central tendencies and tail risks, enabling the calculation of measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). However, the findings also highlight limitations of the GBM model, including its assumption of constant volatility and its tendency to exaggerate extreme outcomes. The study concludes that Monte Carlo simulation is best understood as a tool for quantifying uncertainty and risk rather than for producing precise short-term forecasts.

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"Exploring the Extent of the Predictive Power of a Monte Carlo Simulation in Forecasting 7-Day Ahead Closing Stock Prices for Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR)", IJSDR - International Journal of Scientific Development and Research (www.IJSDR.org), ISSN:2455-2631, Vol.10, Issue 9, page no.b524-b530, September-2025, Available :https://ijsdr.org/papers/IJSDR2509164.pdf

Volume 10 Issue 9, September-2025

Pages : b524-b530

Paper Reg. ID: IJSDR_304965

Published Paper Id: IJSDR2509164

Downloads: 00067

Research Area: Applied Mathematics

Country: Kuala Lumpur, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Published Paper PDF: https://ijsdr.org/papers/IJSDR2509164

Published Paper URL: https://ijsdr.org/viewpaperforall?paper=IJSDR2509164

ISSN: 2455-2631 | IMPACT FACTOR: 9.15 Calculated By Google Scholar | ESTD YEAR: 2016

An International Scholarly Open Access Journal, Peer-Reviewed, Refereed Journal Impact Factor 9.15 Calculate by Google Scholar and Semantic Scholar | AI-Powered Research Tool, Multidisciplinary, Monthly, Multilanguage Journal Indexing in All Major Database & Metadata, Citation Generator

Publisher: IJSDR(IJ Publication) Janvi Wave

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